North Carolina St.
Atlantic Coast
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.0#45
Expected Predictive Rating+9.6#53
Pace71.7#102
Improvement-0.7#211

Offense
Total Offense+6.1#37
First Shot+5.5#34
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#120
Layup/Dunks+5.3#18
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#155
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#174
Freethrows+0.1#172
Improvement-4.0#332

Defense
Total Defense+3.8#74
First Shot+4.7#48
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#256
Layups/Dunks+0.1#168
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#207
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#16
Freethrows+0.4#151
Improvement+3.3#39
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 50.2% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 50.2% n/a n/a
Average Seed 10.6 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% n/a n/a
Conference Champion 0.0% n/a n/a
Last Place in Conference 0.0% n/a n/a
First Four25.2% n/a n/a
First Round37.5% n/a n/a
Second Round15.4% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen5.1% n/a n/a
Elite Eight1.9% n/a n/a
Final Four0.6% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.1% n/a n/a
National Champion0.0% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 14 - 5
Quad 24 - 58 - 10
Quad 37 - 215 - 12
Quad 45 - 020 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 58   Georgia Tech L 81-82 OT 67%     0 - 1 +4.5 +4.7 +0.0
  Nov 10, 2019 304   Detroit Mercy W 84-65 96%     1 - 1 +7.9 -2.6 +9.3
  Nov 13, 2019 150   Florida International W 86-77 86%     2 - 1 +7.1 +4.5 +1.8
  Nov 16, 2019 309   St. Francis Brooklyn W 95-64 97%     3 - 1 +19.7 +5.7 +10.0
  Nov 19, 2019 326   Alcorn St. W 87-64 98%     4 - 1 +9.0 +3.4 +5.0
  Nov 23, 2019 134   Arkansas Little Rock W 74-58 84%     5 - 1 +15.3 -3.0 +17.8
  Nov 28, 2019 57   Memphis L 78-83 55%     5 - 2 +3.6 +15.7 -12.1
  Dec 04, 2019 21   Wisconsin W 69-54 48%     6 - 2 +25.6 +15.9 +12.6
  Dec 07, 2019 94   @ Wake Forest W 91-82 56%     7 - 2 1 - 0 +17.3 +11.7 +4.8
  Dec 15, 2019 96   @ UNC Greensboro W 80-77 57%     8 - 2 +11.3 +17.7 -6.3
  Dec 19, 2019 33   @ Auburn L 73-79 33%     8 - 3 +8.5 -1.9 +11.1
  Dec 22, 2019 335   The Citadel W 83-63 98%     9 - 3 +4.9 -3.8 +7.2
  Dec 29, 2019 182   Appalachian St. W 72-60 90%     10 - 3 +8.2 -1.2 +9.4
  Jan 04, 2020 67   @ Clemson L 70-81 47%     10 - 4 1 - 1 -0.3 +6.8 -7.3
  Jan 08, 2020 51   Notre Dame W 73-68 64%     11 - 4 2 - 1 +11.3 +9.1 +2.7
  Jan 11, 2020 100   @ Virginia Tech L 58-72 57%     11 - 5 2 - 2 -5.9 -9.9 +4.1
  Jan 15, 2020 92   Miami (FL) W 80-63 76%     12 - 5 3 - 2 +19.4 +14.5 +6.4
  Jan 18, 2020 67   Clemson W 60-54 70%     13 - 5 4 - 2 +10.7 -5.1 +16.1
  Jan 20, 2020 40   @ Virginia W 53-51 37%     14 - 5 5 - 2 +15.5 +6.5 +9.4
  Jan 25, 2020 58   @ Georgia Tech L 58-64 44%     14 - 6 5 - 3 +5.6 -4.3 +9.7
  Jan 27, 2020 68   North Carolina L 65-75 70%     14 - 7 5 - 4 -5.3 -4.4 -1.2
  Feb 01, 2020 11   Louisville L 57-77 43%     14 - 8 5 - 5 -8.2 -10.6 +2.3
  Feb 05, 2020 92   @ Miami (FL) W 83-72 56%     15 - 8 6 - 5 +19.5 +7.9 +10.8
  Feb 11, 2020 46   @ Syracuse W 79-74 39%     16 - 8 7 - 5 +18.0 +3.3 +14.2
  Feb 16, 2020 159   @ Boston College L 68-71 73%     16 - 9 7 - 6 +0.6 -3.5 +4.3
  Feb 19, 2020 3   Duke W 88-66 32%     17 - 9 8 - 6 +36.7 +14.9 +20.0
  Feb 22, 2020 12   Florida St. L 61-67 44%     17 - 10 8 - 7 +5.5 +2.0 +2.8
  Feb 25, 2020 68   @ North Carolina L 79-85 47%     17 - 11 8 - 8 +4.7 +4.1 +1.1
  Feb 29, 2020 104   Pittsburgh W 77-73 79%     18 - 11 9 - 8 +5.6 +5.1 +0.5
  Mar 02, 2020 3   @ Duke L 69-88 16%     18 - 12 9 - 9 +1.7 +4.7 -2.6
  Mar 06, 2020 94   Wake Forest W 84-64 77%     19 - 12 10 - 9 +22.3 +11.6 +11.1
  Mar 11, 2020 104   Pittsburgh W 73-58 70%     20 - 12 +19.7 +4.7 +15.2
Projected Record 20 - 12 10 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 100.0 100.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 100.0% 50.2% 50.2% 10.6 0.6 2.7 14.7 29.4 2.9 49.8 50.2%
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 50.2% 0.0% 50.2% 10.6 0.6 2.7 14.7 29.4 2.9 49.8 50.2%